Erik Kusch, PhD Student

Department of Biology

Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity

Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE)

Aarhus University

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 1

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 2

For k categories, we need k-1

indicator variables!

The Problem: picking priors for each

indicator variables!

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 3

For k categories, we only need one index variable!

Let’s us assign the same prior to each

category!

29/04/202111/12/2020

For k categories, we only need one

index variable!

Let’s us assign the same prior to each

category!

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 5

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 6

“X is independent of Y conditional of Z”

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 7

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 8

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 9

Conditioning on a node, blocks nodes on the same path further away from the

outcome!

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 10

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 11

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 12

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 13

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 14

Causation follows the directionality of the arrows. Information/Correlation can flow in any direction.

29/01/2021

[Study Group] Bayesian Statistics with the Rethinking Material 15